Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.40    167.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.8  16.1  17.9  22.2  25.7  30.1  35.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  73.0  84.0  75.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 115.7 111.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  78.0  70.0  32.0  78.0   9.0  28.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -9.0 -14.0 -20.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.6%       18.7%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       52.0%       74.2%       63.1%
 30kt / 24h       27.5%       62.6%       45.1%
 35kt / 24h       23.3%       62.6%       43.0%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       60.0%       32.9%
 45kt / 36h       38.7%       82.2%       60.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       70.7%       35.4%
 55kt / 48h       48.6%       56.5%       52.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       56.0%       40.4%
 65kt / 72h       38.6%       55.5%       47.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 SH012024 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.40    167.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  16.8  16.1  17.9  22.2  25.7  30.1  35.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -9.0 -14.0 -20.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%