Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231022 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.00 167.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 87.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 19.0 20.7 24.3 27.7 27.9 35.2 47.2 F N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 77.0 57.0 31.0 19.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 119.6 115.1 108.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 147.0 149.0 160.0 182.0 144.0 168.0 106.0 69.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 69.0 66.0 61.0 60.0 57.0 55.0 48.0 F N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -8.0 -9.0 -19.0 -30.0 N N N N F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.7% 25.3% 20.5% 25kt / 24h 75.8% 82.9% 79.3% 30kt / 24h 42.7% 74.5% 58.6% 35kt / 24h 24.6% 74.5% 49.6% 40kt / 24h 22.5% 71.6% 47.0% 45kt / 36h 51.9% 83.0% 67.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 68.6% 34.3% 55kt / 48h 51.4% 64.6% 58.0% 70kt / 48h 24.9% 61.1% 43.0% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 52.0% 57.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.78 SH012024 231022 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.00 167.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.5 19.0 20.7 24.3 27.7 27.9 35.2 47.2 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 69.0 66.0 61.0 60.0 57.0 55.0 48.0 U N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -8.0 -9.0 -19.0 -30.0 N N N N U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%