Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.70    167.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.9  22.7  23.5  25.9  31.9  33.3  36.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  67.0  69.0  72.0  80.0  60.0  32.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 112.0 109.6 105.1 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  50.0  72.0  97.0  53.0  71.0  29.0  16.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       38.8%       36.4%       37.6%
 25kt / 24h       70.6%       80.9%       75.8%
 30kt / 24h       52.2%       76.6%       64.4%
 35kt / 24h       49.4%       76.6%       63.0%
 40kt / 24h       27.7%       73.8%       50.7%
 45kt / 36h       46.4%       78.2%       62.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       64.8%       32.4%
 55kt / 48h       40.9%       46.6%       43.7%
 70kt / 48h       19.7%       40.2%       29.9%
 65kt / 72h       13.5%       29.2%       21.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 SH012024 231022 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.70    167.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.9  22.7  23.5  25.9  31.9  33.3  36.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  63.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%