Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231022 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 169.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 28.6 28.4 26.8 21.7 31.6 36.6 33.7 N N N N N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 72.0 54.0 35.0 17.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.3 94.6 90.1 85.7 81.5 73.5 56.1 41.7 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 141.0 114.0 93.0 88.0 90.0 78.0 85.0 56.0 VF F F F F N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 77.0 74.0 75.0 72.0 N N N F F N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -8.0 -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -12.0 -20.0 -25.0 F F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 58.1% 31.6% 44.9% 25kt / 24h 70.7% 67.3% 69.0% 30kt / 24h 52.1% 60.9% 56.5% 35kt / 24h 42.6% 60.9% 51.8% 40kt / 24h 41.7% 57.7% 49.7% 45kt / 36h 37.7% 48.3% 43.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 27.8% 13.9% 55kt / 48h 15.3% 14.2% 14.7% 70kt / 48h 5.8% 10.2% 8.0% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 4.2% 2.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.20 SH012024 231022 18UTC Storm Located at : -12.30 169.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 28.6 28.4 26.8 21.7 31.6 36.6 33.7 N N N N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 77.0 74.0 75.0 72.0 N N N U U N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -8.0 -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -12.0 -20.0 -25.0 U U U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%