Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231023 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.20 169.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 67.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 27.8 30.6 33.1 38.7 34.0 31.5 35.0 U N U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 65.0 52.0 31.0 19.0 8.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.3 57.9 53.6 51.5 47.4 38.0 27.7 18.6 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 52.0 70.0 49.0 18.0 46.0 13.0 -22.0 N N N N U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 63.0 65.0 61.0 55.0 51.0 44.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -14.0 -16.0 -20.0 -23.0 -14.0 -11.0 -7.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 53.6% 16.4% 35.0% 25kt / 24h 28.3% 21.3% 24.8% 30kt / 24h 20.8% 15.4% 18.1% 35kt / 24h 20.2% 15.4% 17.8% 40kt / 24h 14.6% 13.8% 14.2% 45kt / 36h 21.7% 8.1% 14.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 SH012024 231023 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.20 169.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 27.8 30.6 33.1 38.7 34.0 31.5 35.0 F N N F F F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 63.0 65.0 61.0 55.0 51.0 44.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -14.0 -16.0 -20.0 -23.0 -14.0 -11.0 -7.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%