Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231023 12UTC Storm Located at : -13.50 169.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 40.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 62.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 32.4 36.7 37.6 35.5 38.1 33.1 41.5 N U U U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 41.0 23.0 15.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.1 35.7 31.5 29.4 25.5 14.4 3.0 -5.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 78.0 60.0 39.0 29.0 8.0 13.0 -8.0 N N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -19.0 -26.0 -29.0 -18.0 -18.0 -13.0 -6.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.2% 6.0% 19.1% 25kt / 24h 7.2% 4.4% 5.8% 30kt / 24h 5.7% 2.1% 3.9% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.82 SH012024 231023 12UTC Storm Located at : -13.50 169.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 40.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 32.4 36.7 37.6 35.5 38.1 33.1 41.5 N N F F F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -19.0 -26.0 -29.0 -18.0 -18.0 -13.0 -6.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 5.5% 7.4%