Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.00 169.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 76.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 40.3 40.1 39.4 38.5 36.1 33.6 45.8 U U U U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 22.0 16.0 12.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.7 31.5 29.4 27.4 19.8 6.1 -2.8 -8.3 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 54.0 44.0 39.0 3.0 19.0 -6.0 -1.0 N N N N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 57.0 52.0 42.0 38.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -28.0 -30.0 -24.0 -14.0 -12.0 -5.0 -6.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.4% 2.1% 9.8% 25kt / 24h 2.3% 1.8% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 SH012024 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : -14.00 169.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 40.3 40.1 39.4 38.5 36.1 33.6 45.8 F F F F F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 57.0 52.0 42.0 38.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -28.0 -30.0 -24.0 -14.0 -12.0 -5.0 -6.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 40.3% 10.8% 25.5%