Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    168.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.7  47.0  47.3  44.1  43.0  41.5  55.6  65.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         29.4  27.4  21.6  14.4   1.5  -7.0 -13.3 -21.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  23.0  36.0   3.0 -11.0 -39.0 -26.0 -29.0  N  U  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  54.0  51.0  47.0  41.0  33.0  29.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -33.0 -23.0 -27.0 -13.0 -10.0  -6.0  -8.0 -12.0 VF VF VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 SH012024 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.10    168.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.