Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231024 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.60 168.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.6 44.6 43.3 38.3 39.7 49.2 65.1 98.3 VU VU VU U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 5.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 27.4 21.6 14.4 6.1 -7.0 -12.1 -23.3 -37.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 47.0 29.0 9.0 -11.0 -20.0 2.0 61.0 U N N U U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 55.0 52.0 49.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 45.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -28.0 -24.0 -16.0 -13.0 -13.0 -12.0 -14.0 -24.0 VF VF VF VF VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 SH012024 231024 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.60 168.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115.