Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.8  40.7  38.3  39.5  42.0  43.7  60.5  97.6 VU VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.5  29.8  21.0  13.0   1.7  -0.8  -6.8 -25.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  13.0  -4.0   5.0 -43.0  -4.0  27.0  57.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  38.0  43.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -24.0 -17.0 -16.0 -18.0 -11.0 -14.0  -8.0 -36.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.86

 SH012024 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.80    167.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.