Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    167.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  36.7  34.4  36.8  44.3  54.6  65.9  91.1 VU  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         39.8  34.4  27.7  20.0  11.7   6.7  -2.3 -18.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0   4.0   2.0  -8.0 -13.0  -9.0  36.0 106.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  47.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  39.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -16.0 -14.0 -13.0 -10.0 -13.0 -12.0 -36.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.62

 SH012024 231025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.20    167.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.