Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231025 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 167.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.9 46.4 47.5 45.4 54.5 68.0 103.4 113.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 47.7 40.0 34.4 31.7 25.5 16.7 5.8 -0.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -13.0 -1.0 4.0 -8.0 -12.0 17.0 71.0 94.0 U U U U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 47.0 45.0 41.0 38.0 39.0 50.0 52.0 U VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -15.0 -14.0 -11.0 -9.0 -9.0 -17.0 -16.0 VF VF VF F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.88 SH012024 231025 06UTC Storm Located at : -17.10 167.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.