Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    166.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        48.7  42.8  45.5  51.0  63.3  92.1 113.4  97.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.0  55.8  51.7  49.2  40.9  29.1  20.4  16.4  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -24.0 -25.0 -13.0   1.0  38.0  87.0  69.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  43.0  40.0  36.0  32.0  35.0  54.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -15.0 -11.0 -10.0 -11.0 -13.0 -33.0 -29.0 VF VF  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 SH012024 231025 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.20    166.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.