Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231025 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.50 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.8 41.4 49.9 49.0 60.5 90.8 102.8 69.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 66.5 62.2 58.0 54.2 45.9 29.2 17.8 6.6 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -32.0 -38.0 -37.0 -31.0 7.0 76.0 119.0 108.0 VU VU VU VU U N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 46.0 58.0 55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -11.0 -15.0 -16.0 -4.0 -13.0 -71.0 -31.0 VF F VF VF F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.62 SH012024 231025 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.30 166.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.