Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231026 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.40 165.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.4 42.2 49.6 49.0 68.8 92.8 93.3 60.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.2 83.0 80.4 77.9 66.7 47.7 35.9 30.0 N N N N U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -49.0 -46.0 -42.0 0.0 31.0 99.0 116.0 87.0 VU VU VU U N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 39.0 39.0 35.0 35.0 51.0 60.0 52.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -14.0 -15.0 -12.0 -9.0 -24.0 -44.0 -34.0 F VF VF F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.38 SH012024 231026 00UTC Storm Located at : -17.40 165.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.