Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012024 231026 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.10 165.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.5 49.8 59.9 62.2 97.5 101.3 73.1 47.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.7 82.9 78.2 72.7 57.6 47.8 42.7 37.3 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -15.0 -21.0 3.0 -1.0 59.0 102.0 95.0 96.0 U VU U U N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 39.0 39.0 38.0 47.0 58.0 50.0 54.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -17.0 -16.0 -8.0 -15.0 -56.0 14.0 2.0 VF VF VF F VF VF U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.82 SH012024 231026 06UTC Storm Located at : -18.10 165.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.