Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231113 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.00 170.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.6 33.9 34.9 30.8 38.9 49.3 75.9 82.4 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 79.0 72.0 32.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 107.4 70.4 49.1 35.8 F F F F N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 106.0 64.0 77.0 48.0 12.0 48.0 56.0 101.0 F N N N U N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 68.0 62.0 55.0 50.0 48.0 41.0 37.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 4.0 -7.0 -6.0 -22.0 -37.0 -29.0 N N N F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 3.4% 3.0% 25kt / 24h 15.4% 27.3% 21.3% 30kt / 24h 5.3% 12.4% 8.8% 35kt / 24h 3.1% 11.6% 7.3% 40kt / 24h 0.7% 10.8% 5.7% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 17.9% 10.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.7% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 1.4% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 1.3% 0.8% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 SH022024 231113 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.00 170.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.6 33.9 34.9 30.8 38.9 49.3 75.9 82.4 N F F N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 68.0 62.0 55.0 50.0 48.0 41.0 37.0 N N N F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 5.0 4.0 -7.0 -6.0 -22.0 -37.0 -29.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%