Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231113 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.50 173.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 91.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 31.6 31.8 35.0 53.0 69.4 84.4 91.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 75.0 40.0 22.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 97.9 58.6 36.7 22.6 15.2 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 24.0 22.0 26.0 36.0 32.0 24.0 50.0 N U U U N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 55.0 57.0 53.0 54.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -11.0 -28.0 -40.0 -36.0 -36.0 N F N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 39.0% 22.2% 30.6% 25kt / 24h 39.9% 50.6% 45.3% 30kt / 24h 27.6% 40.9% 34.2% 35kt / 24h 27.6% 40.9% 34.2% 40kt / 24h 13.3% 37.3% 25.3% 45kt / 36h 3.7% 16.0% 9.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 SH022024 231113 12UTC Storm Located at : -12.50 173.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.8 31.6 31.8 35.0 53.0 69.4 84.4 91.7 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 60.0 60.0 59.0 55.0 57.0 53.0 54.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -11.0 -28.0 -40.0 -36.0 -36.0 N U N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%