Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231114 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 175.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 97.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.9 44.3 48.5 55.0 72.0 83.0 75.5 66.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.6 64.4 45.8 34.3 14.2 6.4 -0.9 -7.7 N U U VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 35.0 52.0 64.0 75.0 81.0 78.0 24.0 U N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 49.0 50.0 44.0 42.0 36.0 33.0 30.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -28.0 -23.0 -36.0 -39.0 -47.0 -55.0 -56.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.58 SH022024 231114 12UTC Storm Located at : -17.20 175.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.