Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231114 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 176.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 79.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 129.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.7 53.5 64.4 66.8 75.6 88.3 82.6 74.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 61.0 44.4 29.8 17.4 11.9 4.6 -0.9 -5.3 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 26.0 10.0 16.0 36.0 59.0 28.0 -22.0 U U U U N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 51.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 42.0 37.0 33.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -24.0 -27.0 -35.0 -28.0 -50.0 -42.0 -40.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.34 SH022024 231114 18UTC Storm Located at : -18.70 176.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.