Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231115 00UTC Storm Located at : -20.30 178.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 53.1 62.5 58.3 73.3 86.8 79.9 75.1 64.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 31.7 15.7 7.4 5.8 -2.3 -7.7 -14.5 -18.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 29.0 41.0 45.0 56.0 51.0 -40.0 -19.0 U N N N N N VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 49.0 49.0 51.0 49.0 41.0 37.0 36.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -21.0 -45.0 -29.0 -44.0 -58.0 -65.0 -62.0 -35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.20 SH022024 231115 00UTC Storm Located at : -20.30 178.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.