Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231115 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.60 178.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 36.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 60.9 61.8 71.1 77.2 85.0 79.3 66.4 59.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 18.7 13.3 11.6 7.6 0.2 -7.3 -11.1 -14.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 28.0 40.0 47.0 58.0 -1.0 -31.0 -30.0 U U N N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 47.0 50.0 50.0 47.0 41.0 37.0 37.0 U VU U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -46.0 -30.0 -37.0 -27.0 -39.0 -53.0 -50.0 -19.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.36 SH022024 231115 06UTC Storm Located at : -21.60 178.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.