Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231115 12UTC Storm Located at : -22.60 178.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.8 70.9 76.1 89.7 83.2 77.1 64.8 48.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 17.4 15.8 13.4 9.1 4.0 -1.3 -6.1 -11.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 55.0 49.0 49.0 53.0 -37.0 -5.0 -1.0 U N N N N VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 47.0 46.0 48.0 38.0 32.0 30.0 36.0 VU VU VU U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -44.0 -36.0 -27.0 -65.0 -51.0 -50.0 -29.0 -22.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.72 SH022024 231115 12UTC Storm Located at : -22.60 178.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.