Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231115 18UTC Storm Located at : -23.80 179.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 71.4 84.5 87.8 79.5 66.7 59.1 51.0 46.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.0 21.2 17.7 14.0 9.1 2.7 -2.1 -7.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 78.0 62.0 64.0 33.0 9.0 48.0 68.0 N N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 40.0 37.0 35.0 33.0 36.0 51.0 58.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -40.0 -36.0 -40.0 -40.0 -51.0 -51.0 -57.0 -51.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.04 SH022024 231115 18UTC Storm Located at : -23.80 179.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.