Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231116 00UTC Storm Located at : -24.90 180.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 76.2 87.7 81.6 81.5 73.2 56.7 49.9 42.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 27.6 22.1 20.2 16.7 11.8 8.1 5.9 -0.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 86.0 77.0 75.0 56.0 0.0 -35.0 -15.0 45.0 F N N N U VU U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 41.0 41.0 37.0 36.0 38.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -41.0 -84.0 -45.0 -56.0 -59.0 -28.0 -20.0 -31.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.66 SH022024 231116 00UTC Storm Located at : -24.90 180.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.