Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022024 231116 06UTC Storm Located at : -26.10 182.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 87.9 81.9 75.3 70.0 58.2 52.0 52.9 60.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 27.1 24.6 21.7 18.2 14.2 11.6 9.0 4.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 53.0 50.0 54.0 37.0 -6.0 50.0 38.0 72.0 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 41.0 41.0 39.0 36.0 42.0 57.0 50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -44.0 -36.0 -43.0 -44.0 -51.0 -47.0 -48.0 -38.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 21.04 SH022024 231116 06UTC Storm Located at : -26.10 182.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.