Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231205 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.40    156.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  13.0  13.0  14.4  15.3  17.9  23.6  35.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  46.0  47.0  49.0  58.0  72.0  68.0  35.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  37.0  82.0  60.0  33.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.1%       12.2%       10.7%
 25kt / 24h       44.5%       64.5%       54.5%
 30kt / 24h       24.6%       49.3%       36.9%
 35kt / 24h       16.7%       49.3%       33.0%
 40kt / 24h        8.4%       49.3%       28.8%
 45kt / 36h       33.2%       68.9%       51.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       50.8%       25.4%
 55kt / 48h       43.5%       55.1%       49.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       46.3%       35.6%
 65kt / 72h       41.2%       50.8%       46.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 SH032024 231205 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.40    156.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  13.0  13.0  14.4  15.3  17.9  23.6  35.3  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  74.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  -4.0  -8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%