Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231205 12UTC Storm Located at : -9.20 156.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.2 10.7 9.3 11.5 15.2 14.5 26.1 35.7 F F F F F F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 47.0 46.0 47.0 54.0 69.0 69.0 38.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 117.0 127.0 122.0 109.0 156.0 111.0 107.0 62.0 F F F F VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 74.0 72.0 71.0 75.0 71.0 70.0 66.0 F N N N F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -13.0 -10.0 N N N N N F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.2% 26.4% 22.3% 25kt / 24h 71.2% 83.3% 77.2% 30kt / 24h 48.1% 77.9% 63.0% 35kt / 24h 32.8% 77.9% 55.3% 40kt / 24h 29.5% 76.8% 53.2% 45kt / 36h 61.6% 85.1% 73.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 75.3% 37.6% 55kt / 48h 52.2% 78.9% 65.6% 70kt / 48h 25.0% 72.1% 48.6% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 71.2% 66.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 SH032024 231205 12UTC Storm Located at : -9.20 156.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.2 10.7 9.3 11.5 15.2 14.5 26.1 35.7 U U U U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 74.0 72.0 71.0 75.0 71.0 70.0 66.0 U N N N U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -13.0 -10.0 N N N N N U VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%