Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231205 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.80 157.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 17.7 19.1 17.4 21.2 37.8 46.6 57.2 F F N F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 47.0 47.0 49.0 59.0 63.0 56.0 53.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 148.0 132.0 93.0 67.0 100.0 63.0 25.0 25.0 VF F F N F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 84.0 81.0 79.0 73.0 74.0 68.0 68.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -12.0 -13.0 -9.0 N F N N F F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 49.8% 43.3% 46.5% 25kt / 24h 79.2% 85.8% 82.5% 30kt / 24h 65.3% 84.0% 74.7% 35kt / 24h 56.0% 84.0% 70.0% 40kt / 24h 46.7% 82.4% 64.5% 45kt / 36h 60.9% 82.6% 71.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 72.0% 36.0% 55kt / 48h 44.4% 56.2% 50.3% 70kt / 48h 19.0% 43.3% 31.1% 65kt / 72h 7.5% 19.0% 13.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 SH032024 231205 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.80 157.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.6 17.7 19.1 17.4 21.2 37.8 46.6 57.2 U N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 84.0 81.0 79.0 73.0 74.0 68.0 68.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 -6.0 -12.0 -13.0 -9.0 N U N N U U VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%