Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231206 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.80 157.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 92.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 76.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 16.5 21.8 20.9 31.6 38.7 52.0 52.1 F F N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 53.0 58.0 62.0 59.0 57.0 54.0 28.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 112.0 70.0 54.0 71.0 83.0 119.0 12.0 49.0 F N N N N F U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 73.0 75.0 74.0 74.0 71.0 66.0 64.0 N N F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -7.0 -12.0 -10.0 -21.0 F F F F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 72.1% 57.4% 64.7% 25kt / 24h 84.4% 87.7% 86.1% 30kt / 24h 79.6% 87.7% 83.6% 35kt / 24h 74.6% 87.7% 81.1% 40kt / 24h 74.3% 86.2% 80.3% 45kt / 36h 60.0% 74.0% 67.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 59.6% 29.8% 55kt / 48h 34.5% 44.2% 39.3% 70kt / 48h 11.2% 27.7% 19.4% 65kt / 72h 4.2% 10.9% 7.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 SH032024 231206 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.80 157.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.0 16.5 21.8 20.9 31.6 38.7 52.0 52.1 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 73.0 75.0 74.0 74.0 71.0 66.0 64.0 N N U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 -6.0 -8.0 -7.0 -12.0 -10.0 -21.0 U U U U U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%