Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231206 06UTC Storm Located at : -11.00 157.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 21.3 17.8 21.8 32.6 47.3 58.1 45.3 F N F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 56.0 61.0 63.0 56.0 51.0 52.0 39.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 85.0 86.0 82.0 74.0 62.0 30.0 30.0 F F F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 76.0 75.0 73.0 66.0 66.0 64.0 63.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -4.0 -9.0 -6.0 -10.0 -14.0 F F F F F F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 64.1% 38.9% 51.5% 25kt / 24h 77.1% 77.7% 77.4% 30kt / 24h 72.6% 75.5% 74.0% 35kt / 24h 65.1% 75.5% 70.3% 40kt / 24h 60.2% 75.0% 67.6% 45kt / 36h 48.4% 47.5% 48.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 26.8% 13.4% 55kt / 48h 14.9% 19.0% 16.9% 70kt / 48h 5.2% 7.0% 6.1% 65kt / 72h 1.9% 3.3% 2.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.82 SH032024 231206 06UTC Storm Located at : -11.00 157.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.3 21.3 17.8 21.8 32.6 47.3 58.1 45.3 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 76.0 75.0 73.0 66.0 66.0 64.0 63.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -7.0 -8.0 -4.0 -9.0 -6.0 -10.0 -14.0 U U U U U U U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%