Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231206 18UTC Storm Located at : -11.90 157.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 24.8 29.5 36.5 48.1 56.1 47.7 51.5 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 65.0 64.0 61.0 59.0 60.0 38.0 21.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 111.0 106.0 58.0 41.0 46.0 34.0 42.0 -1.0 F F N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 71.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 62.0 63.0 57.0 F N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -4.0 -9.0 -7.0 -13.0 -17.0 F F F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 68.6% 37.7% 53.1% 25kt / 24h 65.2% 60.4% 62.8% 30kt / 24h 54.6% 57.1% 55.9% 35kt / 24h 51.5% 57.1% 54.3% 40kt / 24h 45.6% 54.0% 49.8% 45kt / 36h 40.3% 21.7% 31.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.7% 4.3% 55kt / 48h 2.7% 3.4% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 SH032024 231206 18UTC Storm Located at : -11.90 157.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 24.8 29.5 36.5 48.1 56.1 47.7 51.5 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 71.0 72.0 71.0 67.0 62.0 63.0 57.0 U N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 -4.0 -9.0 -7.0 -13.0 -17.0 U U U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2%