Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10    156.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  29.3  30.8  37.8  51.9  48.7  47.6  44.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  70.0  67.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  36.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    94.0  78.0  41.0  61.0  -5.0  10.0  -1.0  18.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0 -11.0 -11.0  -4.0  -3.0 -17.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.2%       14.9%       20.6%
 25kt / 24h       37.1%       33.9%       35.5%
 30kt / 24h       23.5%       27.1%       25.3%
 35kt / 24h       19.0%       27.1%       23.0%
 40kt / 24h       14.0%       24.7%       19.3%
 45kt / 36h       16.5%        6.2%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.66

 SH032024 231207 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.10    156.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  29.3  30.8  37.8  51.9  48.7  47.6  44.4  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -5.0 -11.0 -11.0  -4.0  -3.0 -17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%