Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  24.5  30.1  35.9  38.8  31.9  36.6  35.3  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   68.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  79.0  73.0  17.0   9.0  24.0  35.0  28.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -11.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       26.8%       15.0%       20.9%
 25kt / 24h       35.4%       32.3%       33.9%
 30kt / 24h       22.0%       26.0%       24.0%
 35kt / 24h       17.6%       26.0%       21.8%
 40kt / 24h       13.5%       23.3%       18.4%
 45kt / 36h       27.4%        8.7%       18.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        2.8%        3.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 SH032024 231207 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -12.80    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  24.5  30.1  35.9  38.8  31.9  36.6  35.3  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -10.0 -11.0  -6.0  -6.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%