Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  33.7  36.8  38.3  34.4  37.3  32.6  33.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  63.0  65.0  67.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    93.0  88.0  42.0   3.0  17.0  27.0  59.0  49.0  F  F  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       32.5%       12.3%       22.4%
 25kt / 24h       28.3%       22.9%       25.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.7%       16.5%       17.6%
 35kt / 24h       17.5%       16.5%       17.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.6%       14.6%       12.1%
 45kt / 36h       31.1%        8.5%       19.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 SH032024 231207 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.10    156.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  33.7  36.8  38.3  34.4  37.3  32.6  33.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -11.0  -8.0  -6.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%