Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231207 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.80 156.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 86.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 46.4 50.2 50.2 43.2 50.4 42.8 34.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 57.0 56.0 56.0 57.0 63.0 53.0 21.0 23.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 70.0 12.0 8.0 38.0 14.0 -12.0 -3.0 N N U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 67.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 56.0 52.0 57.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -6.0 -7.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -5.0 F F F F N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 28.9% 5.4% 17.1% 25kt / 24h 9.6% 6.3% 7.9% 30kt / 24h 7.0% 3.2% 5.1% 35kt / 24h 7.0% 3.2% 5.1% 40kt / 24h 3.5% 2.8% 3.1% 45kt / 36h 20.9% 2.4% 11.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 SH032024 231207 18UTC Storm Located at : -13.80 156.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.9 46.4 50.2 50.2 43.2 50.4 42.8 34.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 67.0 63.0 64.0 62.0 56.0 52.0 57.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -6.0 -7.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -5.0 U U U U N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.4% 12.8% 7.1%