Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231208 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.20 156.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.4 49.8 43.1 43.3 50.9 52.0 42.7 24.8 U VU VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 53.0 56.0 60.0 63.0 46.0 18.0 28.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 44.6 40.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 77.0 20.0 28.0 39.0 38.0 2.0 -20.0 -31.0 N U U N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 59.0 52.0 54.0 59.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -9.0 -8.0 -8.0 0.0 -12.0 -7.0 -1.0 F F F F N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 28.0% 4.5% 16.2% 25kt / 24h 9.4% 5.6% 7.5% 30kt / 24h 7.3% 2.8% 5.0% 35kt / 24h 7.3% 2.8% 5.0% 40kt / 24h 3.2% 2.4% 2.8% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.54 SH032024 231208 00UTC Storm Located at : -14.20 156.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.4 49.8 43.1 43.3 50.9 52.0 42.7 24.8 F VF VF VF VF VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 59.0 52.0 54.0 59.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -9.0 -8.0 -8.0 0.0 -12.0 -7.0 -1.0 U U U U N U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 1.3% 18.0% 9.6%