Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231208 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 156.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.0 40.0 39.3 39.4 41.4 33.5 26.8 17.5 VU U U U VU U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 57.0 60.0 66.0 69.0 53.0 29.0 26.0 30.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 49.3 42.3 42.3 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 21.0 36.0 34.0 31.0 21.0 14.0 39.0 U U N N N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -16.0 -12.0 -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 -5.0 -1.0 VF VF F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.1% 0.8% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 1.4% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.66 SH032024 231208 06UTC Storm Located at : -14.50 156.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.0 40.0 39.3 39.4 41.4 33.5 26.8 17.5 VF F F F VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 61.0 64.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -16.0 -12.0 -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 -5.0 -1.0 VU VU U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.3% 22.3% 13.3%