Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231208 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 156.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.8 45.1 46.4 49.8 48.1 39.6 23.7 12.2 VU VU VU VU VU U N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 55.0 59.0 64.0 68.0 62.0 31.0 28.0 30.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 54.3 47.3 52.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 23.0 32.0 35.0 9.0 -35.0 -43.0 -9.0 U U N N U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 62.0 59.0 53.0 59.0 59.0 66.0 N N N U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -17.0 -5.0 -3.0 -8.0 -11.0 2.0 1.0 VF VF F N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 SH032024 231208 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.00 156.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.8 45.1 46.4 49.8 48.1 39.6 23.7 12.2 VF VF VF VF VF F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 63.0 62.0 59.0 53.0 59.0 59.0 66.0 N N N F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -17.0 -5.0 -3.0 -8.0 -11.0 2.0 1.0 VU VU U N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.1% 50.5% 29.8%