Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231208 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 156.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.6 48.3 46.4 51.3 45.0 29.1 16.4 10.2 VU VU VU VU VU N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 57.0 62.0 58.0 24.0 29.0 30.0 35.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 67.0 60.1 67.0 70.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 31.0 29.0 19.0 -16.0 -36.0 -34.0 -3.0 U N N U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 63.0 57.0 52.0 54.0 62.0 68.0 N N N U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -7.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -6.0 0.0 0.0 VF F N N N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 SH032024 231208 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.30 156.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 90.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.6 48.3 46.4 51.3 45.0 29.1 16.4 10.2 VF VF VF VF VF N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 63.0 57.0 52.0 54.0 62.0 68.0 N N N F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -7.0 -1.0 -3.0 -2.0 -6.0 0.0 0.0 VU U N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.7% 40.2% 23.9%