Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231209 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.00 155.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 61.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.5 50.7 52.2 46.1 32.0 10.8 11.4 10.6 VU VU VU VU U F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 55.0 38.0 22.0 25.0 30.0 30.0 31.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 82.0 75.1 77.3 84.3 85.0 N N N N U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 50.0 39.0 12.0 -24.0 -52.0 7.0 -32.0 N N N U VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 56.0 54.0 51.0 55.0 66.0 65.0 72.0 N U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -1.0 -10.0 -11.0 -7.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0 F N F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 SH032024 231209 06UTC Storm Located at : -16.00 155.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.5 50.7 52.2 46.1 32.0 10.8 11.4 10.6 VF VF VF VF N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 56.0 54.0 51.0 55.0 66.0 65.0 72.0 N F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -1.0 -10.0 -11.0 -7.0 -2.0 1.0 2.0 U N U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.1% 16.4% 12.8%