Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231209 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.80 155.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 66.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.2 48.7 49.8 40.2 21.6 11.0 11.6 11.3 VU VU VU U N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 54.0 29.0 21.0 30.0 29.0 32.0 33.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 94.3 89.6 85.1 89.6 94.3 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 60.0 34.0 4.0 -30.0 -51.0 -37.0 -6.0 -49.0 N N U VU VU VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 53.0 56.0 52.0 56.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -13.0 -22.0 -15.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 F VF VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.56 SH032024 231209 12UTC Storm Located at : -15.80 155.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.2 48.7 49.8 40.2 21.6 11.0 11.6 11.3 VF VF VF F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 53.0 56.0 52.0 56.0 63.0 64.0 65.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -13.0 -22.0 -15.0 -2.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 U VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 26.6% 7.4% 17.0%