Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231209 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 154.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 56.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.2 46.1 39.8 28.6 13.1 12.9 12.3 13.1 VU VU U N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 37.0 23.0 25.0 29.0 32.0 38.0 38.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 99.6 95.1 97.3 104.3 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 7.0 -10.0 -31.0 -35.0 0.0 2.0 -4.0 U U U VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 54.0 58.0 64.0 66.0 64.0 69.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -15.0 -19.0 -4.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 VF VF VF F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.44 SH032024 231209 18UTC Storm Located at : -15.90 154.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.2 46.1 39.8 28.6 13.1 12.9 12.3 13.1 VF VF F N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 57.0 54.0 58.0 64.0 66.0 64.0 69.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -15.0 -19.0 -4.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 VU VU VU U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 11.1% 1.7% 6.4%