Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.1  43.5  32.8  25.3  13.1  12.4  16.8  15.2 VU VU  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  21.0  22.0  23.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 104.6  95.7  91.5  89.4  91.5  93.6  97.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -25.0 -27.0 -38.0 -31.0  18.0 -42.0  14.0  U VU VU VU VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -21.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0 VF VF  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 SH032024 231210 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.10    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.1  43.5  32.8  25.3  13.1  12.4  16.8  15.2 VF VF  F  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  55.0  58.0  58.0  65.0  65.0  66.0  67.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -21.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   1.0   2.0  -1.0 VU VU  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.1%        0.7%        4.9%