Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  29.1  16.4  13.3  14.6  14.4  19.6  20.5  U  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  17.0  17.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  21.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.6  94.4  94.4  92.4  94.4  98.6 109.6 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -37.0 -28.0 -22.0  -5.0  14.0 -36.0  -5.0   0.0 VU VU VU  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH032024 231210 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    152.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.6  29.1  16.4  13.3  14.6  14.4  19.6  20.5  F  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  60.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%