Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032024 231210 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.50 151.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.3 16.0 13.4 14.9 15.8 17.5 19.8 24.8 N F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 18.0 20.0 20.0 21.0 21.0 17.0 40.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 92.4 92.4 94.4 96.5 98.6 105.1 114.3 107.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -5.0 -4.0 4.0 -17.0 -20.0 0.0 22.0 VU U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 62.0 62.0 66.0 65.0 72.0 69.0 U N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -2.0 -1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 3.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 0.9% 0.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 SH032024 231210 18UTC Storm Located at : -17.50 151.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.