Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  15.9  16.2  17.3  15.8  18.9  22.5  24.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  18.0  19.0  20.0  21.0  19.0  21.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         95.5  97.4  99.4 101.5 105.7 112.3 117.0 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -15.0 -12.0   0.0 -24.0  -6.0   1.0   8.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 SH032024 231211 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.80    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.