Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231211 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  15.8  16.1  19.7  17.3  18.7  23.2  19.2  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  19.0  21.0  23.0  23.0  20.0  41.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         97.4 101.5 101.5 105.7 107.9 112.3 114.6 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -22.0   2.0 -17.0  -7.0   9.0  28.0  22.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  60.0  67.0  65.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        1.8%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.8%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        2.8%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 SH032024 231211 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -17.50    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.7  15.8  16.1  19.7  17.3  18.7  23.2  19.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  61.0  60.0  67.0  65.0  71.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -4.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%