Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231211 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.2  18.5  17.5  16.7  21.7  19.9  29.6  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  24.0  26.0  27.0  24.0  18.0  42.0  41.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        103.6 105.7 107.9 110.1 110.1 114.6 117.0 112.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0  -3.0 -17.0 -21.0  -5.0   0.0  12.0  12.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  70.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   5.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.7%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        3.6%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%        9.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.5%        3.9%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.8%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        4.3%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.78

 SH032024 231211 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.70    149.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.1  16.2  18.5  17.5  16.7  21.7  19.9  29.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  70.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   3.0   5.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%