Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032024 231211 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  17.6  16.2  16.9  17.2  22.9  21.1  30.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  24.0  24.0  23.0  21.0  42.0  37.5  81.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]         98.6 102.9 102.9 105.1 109.6 109.6 105.1 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -13.0 -33.0 -20.0  29.0  13.0  24.0  16.0  U  U VU VU  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.9%        5.9%        5.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       21.4%       13.6%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%       13.1%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.3%       12.8%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       12.8%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h        7.0%       22.6%       14.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.4%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%        9.1%        7.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        4.7%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        6.9%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 SH032024 231211 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.60    148.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.6  17.6  16.2  16.9  17.2  22.9  21.1  30.2  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   5.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%